Transformer industry development prospects

Since last year, due to the sustained and rapid growth in electricity demand, power shortages have occurred in many areas across the country, and the national economy has encountered a serious problem of “card neck” with a large power supply gap. According to statistics from the China Electrical Equipment Industry Association, in the power transmission and transformation industry in 2003 , the average increase in sales revenue of the transformer industry alone reached more than 30 , and the total profit growth of the industry reached more than 40 .

However, high output growth does not mean high profits. In an interview with the reporter, Meng Qingtang , chairman of Jinan Zhiyou Group ( formerly Jinan Transformer Factory ) , frankly stated that due to the excessive number of companies that have joined the transformer industry in the past two years, in order to compete for the market, companies competed and competed with each other and waged a price war. The 30 to 40 profit margin has dropped to the current level of 5 , and because the prices of raw materials such as steel and copper continue to rise, the transformer industry does not have to worry about it because the market is good. "Hot market competition" has left Zhiyou Group with heavy internal and external pressure.

Electricity investment usher in a boom

Meng Qingtang believes that the main cause of the current serious power shortage is related to the fact that the government’s electricity policy in previous years was not scientific enough. According to his analysis, in 1998 , relevant government departments thought that investment in power construction was too fast and did not approve the construction of power projects. In the next few years, the country will only increase its installed capacity by about 10 million kilowatts per year, which is obviously not in line with the rapid growth of gdp .

In order to ensure the sustained and stable development of the national economy and solve the power shortage problem, the State has timely revised the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” of the power sector. From 2004 to 2005 , the annual new installed capacity reached 25 million kilowatts, and the power generation is expected to continue. To maintain a rapid growth of 10 to 11 , the average annual investment in power construction is about 240 billion yuan, and the investment growth is about 40 , of which the investment in power station equipment is about 50~60 . The investment in power grid equipment is about 30-40 . Plus a total investment of 51.2 billion yuan approved by the State Council of 13 new power plant construction project power plant, expected to drive annual demand transformer industry 3.6 billion to 400 million kva. Driven by relevant national policies, a new wave of electricity investment has come. It can be foreseen that the power transmission and transformation equipment manufacturers will be in full load in the next few years, showing a booming production and sales situation and a very prosperous situation.

The four echelons team up against each other

According to Meng Qingtang, before 1995 , there were only a hundred transformer enterprises in the country, and by the end of 2003 , the entire industry had grown to more than 1,000 . As the entry threshold is too low and the competition is becoming increasingly intense, manufacturers are rushing to reduce prices, the transformer production capacity is already in surplus, most companies lose money or even lose money, and the whole industry is faced with a separatist regime of “composition of forces, redistribution of markets, and redistribution of interests”. situation.

Meng Qingtang analyzed that during the “Ninth Five-Year Plan” period to the “Tenth Five-Year Plan” period, the transformer industry formed four major echelon formations: First, several large multinational corporations such as ABB , Alstom, Siemens, Ilin, Toshiba, etc., relying on advanced technology and abundant funds. With the brand advantage, it occupies 20~30 transformer market, and it is constantly expanding its market share. Second, transformer companies such as Baoding and Xi’an have introduced multi-faceted technology and extensively absorbed high-tech talents in recent years to upgrade their technical level and grade. Accelerating the pace of technological innovation, expanding the scale, accelerating the pace of development, and occupying a transformer market of 30 to 40 ; thirdly, Huapeng, Changzhou, Qingdao, Dachi, Shunde, Xuji and other manufacturers, including Zhiyou Group, have Certain technologies and manufacturing strengths have higher market share in some areas, but the overall market share is not large. Fourth, many private enterprises have formed a certain market share due to their flexible operating mechanism and no non-productive burden.

Market integration kicks off

From the Jiangxi transformer factory was merged by private enterprise Galaxy Technologies, XJ Group was settled in Fuzhou Tianyu Electric Company, Baoji and South Korea Hyosung Group cooperated, Shanghai Transformer Factory and Alstom joint venture, etc., Meng Qingtang believes that the integration of the transformer industry has been Opened the curtain. With the increasing competition among manufacturers, only 20 to 30 companies will occupy most of the transformer market in the future. The re-division of this market has become more and more obvious, and the redistribution of benefits will follow. Can the former "15" end into the industry 15 to 20 determine the company's future ability to obtain greater development. According to Meng Qingtang's analysis, the Zhiyou Group must enter the industry's first 15 to 20 camps, it must reach an annual output of 13 million to 15 million kva , and the current Zhiyou Group's production capacity reaches 10 million kva has reached the limit, to achieve The output of 13 million to 15 million kva must be large-scale expansion of production capacity in order to ensure that companies enter the fast lane of sound development.